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Payment Hierarchy Shifting Back to Pre-Recession Norm
Tuesday, October 1, 2013 5:55 AM

A TransUnion study provides evidence that consumers in financial distress are placing increased value on paying their mortgages ahead of their credit cards, a reversal of the trend observed during the housing downturn. The study found consumers are still more likely to pay their auto loans ahead of their mortgages and credit cards.

The TransUnion study captured the responsiveness of payment behavior to both periods of significant home price depreciation as well as periods of significant appreciation, with a sample window spanning from January 2008 to December 2012. The delinquency measures were based on 12-month rolling consumer cohorts. For example, the first cohort included all consumers in the sample who had a mortgage, credit card and auto loan all in good standing as of January 2008, and then measured the presence of a 30 days past due or worse delinquency as of January 2009.

In the span of the study, the findings show the level of mortgage delinquencies have nearly reached that of credit card delinquency among the cohorts of consumers who have all three primary loan product types.

To determine how much of an impact housing prices had on the rate of payment of credit cards versus mortgages, TransUnion looked at the delinquency spreads between mortgages and credit cards over the sample period for consumers with both products, and compared that spread to the Standard and Poor's Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index. For instance, if the 30-day credit card delinquency rate was 1.25 percent and the 30-day mortgage delinquency rate was 1.75 percent for a given year, then there would be a 0.50 percent spread between the two variables.

The study found variances for the major markets impacted by the housing bubble. For instance, Los Angeles, Chicago and Dallas experienced the housing crisis quite differently. These differences in the trend of home prices resulted in distinct payment hierarchy experiences across the three geographies. While the delinquency spread between mortgage and credit cards for the United States peaked at just over 1 percent, markets hit hard by the mortgage crisis had much higher spreads.

Dallas, mostly insulated from the housing crisis, had stable price conditions throughout the sample period. As a result, its delinquency spread experienced little change over the sample period, starting and ending below zero and moving within a narrow band.

In the case of Los Angeles, which experienced significant home value depreciation followed by a period of stable prices and a recent period of home price appreciation, the delinquency spread between mortgages and credit cards peaked early on at above 4 percent. However, the spread declined continuously until reaching near-parity levels by the end of the sample period.