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Economic Forum Speaker: Even As Summer Fades, the Economy May Remain Hot
Thursday, September 4, 2014 6:30 AM

The U.S. economy has sizzled this summer, but in the months ahead it may only get hotter. So says economist Robert Genetski, a speaker at Catalyst Corporate’s 37th annual Economic Forum. Genetski suggests the economy will grow more rapidly this fall and winter than most people suspect. 

“The amount of liquidity the Fed has placed in the economy has increased substantially since last November. Given normal lags, the impact should be apparent through the summer, fall and winter,” Genetski predicts.

The strong economy envisioned by Genetski may last into next year when it may finally temper as the long forecasted rise in interest rates begins. “Having promised us low rates until later in 2015, I suspect the Fed will wait as long as it can before raising them.  My guess is the increase will take place this coming spring,” said Genetski.

But if the projected rise in rates does not occur well into 2015, what does that mean for credit unions? Genetski points out that “profits for all financial institutions, including credit unions, come under pressure when interest rates are as low as they currently are. If low interest rates continue until later in 2015, the pressure would only increase. In addition, artificially low rates punish savers by offering them negative real returns.” Genetski adds: “I suspect the Fed members understand the problem created by its low interest rate policy and will be inclined to raise rates as soon as they see sufficient evidence that spending is increasing faster than it has been.”

Genetski will present a Federal Reserve Perspective at the Economic Forum, which will be held Oct. 7-8. Genetski, an author and who has taught economics at New York University and the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business, will key in on policies that will help improve long-term prospects for economic growth “and make the Fed’s job of maintaining price stability easier than it has been.”

He will also discuss potential inflationary threats associated with the Fed’s current approach to monetary policy as well as how the Fed intends to unwind its massive balance sheet and ways to identify some of the potential problems the unwinding might create.

“The key to a credit union’s success is overcoming the regulatory and financial barriers imposed by government agencies,” Genetski said. “This means focusing on the things that can be controlled – the costs and benefits associated with each service a credit union provides. It also means avoiding major mistakes such as mismatching assets and liabilities and failing to anticipate how a potential sharp increase in interest rates might affect a credit union’s portfolio.”

Genetski will be joined by a full slate of financial industry experts and knowledgeable economists who will offer insights from national, credit union and Wall Street perspectives so that credit unions can be better positioned for future success.

This year’s Forum will be held at the Omni Mandalay at Las Colinas in Irving, Texas. The complimentary Financial Management Seminar, hosted by Catalyst Strategic Solutions, will precede the Economic Forum on Monday, Oct. 6. 

Early Bird registration is available through September 17th.  For more details, or to register, visit, or call (800) 442.5763, ext. 7841.