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Catalyst Corporate Forum Speaker Chris Low Calls It Correctly
Monday, July 14, 2014 6:40 AM

A recent Bloomberg article credits FTN Financial’s chief economist, Chris Low, and colleague, Jim Vogel, with providing “some of the best bond-market advice to be found anywhere.”  According to the June 30 article, “FTN’s Jim Vogel and Chris Low were among the few who correctly urged investors to ignore the consensus calling for an inevitable selloff in bonds this year.” 

Low’s forecasting savvy will take center stage when he speaks at Catalyst Corporate’s 37th annual Economic Forum which will be held Oct.7 and 8 at the Omni Mandalay at Las Colinas in Irving, Texas.

Low believes that Treasuries will not be returning to pre-financial crisis levels for years to come, due to the struggling labor market.  In contrast, others contend that reduced purchases by the Federal Reserve and signs of a budding inflation are to blame. But in the Bloomberg article, Low said, “If you don’t expect interest rates to go back to where they were in the last cycle, you’re essentially asserting that something is very different in this cycle.  You can make that case more easily with every year that goes by when growth remains weak and several hundred thousand people fall out of the labor force.”

Low has a history of calling it correctly.  A Bloomberg survey of 70 analysts in January 2011 forecast a median estimate of 3.75 percent for a 10-year note. FTN was the only firm to predict the yield would fall to 2 percent. The year ended at 1.88 percent.  In May 2012, the 10-year note was trading at 1.79 percent.  Low, citing Europe’s financial turmoil and slow growth, forecast a 10-year yield to 1.5 percent.  That July, the yield fell to a record low of 1.379.

In 2012, Chris Low was recognized by Bloomberg as “the most accurate forecaster of Treasury note yields.” For over 25 years, Low has been tracking U.S. and global economies, financial markets, central banks and fiscal policy. 

Low will provide a Wall Street perspective at the upcoming Catalyst Corporate Economic Forum to help credit unions as they strategize for the future.  He will speak at 10 a.m., Wednesday, Oct. 8. During the Economic Forum, Low will be joined by well-regarded economists and financial industry experts, including Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual; Kathleen Camilli, former economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Roger Tutterow, Mercer University economics professor; Elliot Eisenberg, former senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders and Jack Uldrich, global futurist.

The Economic Forum will be preceded by the popular Financial Management Seminar which will be held on Oct. 6. This intensely-focused one-day event hosted by Catalyst Strategic Solutions offers specific strategies for managing risk and positioning credit unions for growth in a demanding economy.

For details, or to register for the Economic Forum, visit catalystcorp.org/economicforum.aspx.